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Methane and carbon dioxide effluxes from aquatic systems in the Arctic will affect and likely amplify global change. As permafrost thaws in a warming world, more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and greenhouse gases are produced and move from soils to surface waters where the DOC can be oxidized to CO 2 and also released to the atmosphere. Our main study objective is to measure the release of carbon to the atmosphere via effluxes of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from Toolik Lake, a deep, dimictic, low-arctic lake in northern Alaska. By combining direct eddy covariance flux measurements with continuous gas pressure measurements in the lake surface waters, we quantified the k 600 piston velocity that controls gas flux across the air–water interface. Our measured k values for CH 4 and CO 2 were substantially above predictions from several models at low to moderate wind speeds, and only converged on model predictions at the highest wind speeds. We attribute this higher flux at low wind speeds to effects on water-side turbulence resulting from how the surrounding tundra vegetation and topography increase atmospheric turbulence considerably in this lake, above the level observed over large ocean surfaces. We combine this process-level understanding of gas exchange with the trends of a climate-relevant long-term (30 + years) meteorological data set at Toolik Lake to examine short-term variations (2015 ice-free season) and interannual variability (2010–2015 ice-free seasons) of CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes. We argue that the biological processing of DOC substrate that becomes available for decomposition as the tundra soil warms is important for understanding future trends in aquatic gas fluxes, whereas the variability and long-term trends of the physical and meteorological variables primarily affect the timing of when higher or lower than average fluxes are observed. We see no evidence suggesting that a tipping point will be reached soon to change the status of the aquatic system from gas source to sink. We estimate that changes in CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes will be constrained with a range of +30% and −10% of their current values over the next 30 years. 

Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change.

 

Accelerated warming in the Arctic has led to concern regarding the amount of carbon emission potential from Arctic water bodies. Yet, aquatic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements remain scarce, particularly at high resolution and over long periods of time. Effluxes of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from Toolik Lake, a deep glacial lake in northern Alaska, were measured for the first time with the direct eddy covariance (EC) flux technique during six ice-free lake periods (2010–2015). CO 2 flux estimates from the lake (daily average efflux of 16.7 ± 5.3 mmol m −2 d −1 ) were in good agreement with earlier estimates from 1975–1989 using different methods. CH 4 effluxes in 2010–2015 (averaging 0.13 ± 0.06 mmol m −2 d −1 ) showed an interannual variation that was 4.1 times greater than median diel variations, but mean fluxes were almost one order of magnitude lower than earlier estimates obtained from single water samples in 1990 and 2011–2012. The overall global warming potential (GWP) of Toolik Lake is thus governed mostly by CO 2 effluxes, contributing 86–93% of the ice-free period GWP of 26–90 g CO 2,eq m −2 . Diel variation in fluxes was also important, with up to a 2-fold (CH 4 ) to 4-fold (CO 2 ) difference between the highest nighttime and lowest daytime effluxes. Within the summer ice-free period, on average, CH 4 fluxes increased 2-fold during the first half of the summer, then remained almost constant, whereas CO 2 effluxes remained almost constant over the entire summer, ending with a linear increase during the last 1–2 weeks of measurements. Due to the cold bottom temperatures of this 26 m deep lake, and the absence of ebullition and episodic flux events, Toolik Lake and other deep glacial lakes are likely not hot spots for greenhouse gas emissions, but they still contribute to the overall GWP of the Arctic. 

We present a framework for assessing biogeochemical recovery of terrestrial ecosystems from disturbance. We identify three recovery phases. In Phase 1, nitrogen is redistributed from soil organic matter to vegetation, but the ecosystem continues to lose nitrogen because the recovering vegetation cannot take up nitrogen as fast as it is released from soil. In Phase 2, the ecosystem begins re-accumulating nitrogen and converges on a quasi-steady state in which vegetation and soil-microbial processes are in balance. In Phase 3, vegetation and soil-microbial processes remain in balance and the ecosystem slowly re-accumulates the remaining nitrogen. Phase 3 follows a balanced-accumulation trajectory along a continuum of quasi-steady states that approaches the true steady state asymptotically. We examine the effects of three ecosystem properties on recovery: openness of the nitrogen cycle, nitrogen distribution in and turnover between vegetation and soils, and the proportion of nitrogen losses that are in a refractory form. Openness exacerbates Phase 1 nitrogen losses but speeds recovery in Phases 2 and 3. A high fraction of ecosystem nitrogen in vegetation, resulting from nitrogen turnover that is slow in vegetation but fast in soil, exacerbates Phase 1 nitrogen losses but speeds recovery in Phases 2 and 3. A high proportion of nitrogen loss in refractory form mitigates Phase 1 nitrogen losses and speeds recovery in Phases 2 and 3. Application of our conceptual framework requires empirical recognition of the continuum of quasi-steady states constituting the balanced-accumulation trajectory and a distinction between the balanced-accumulation trajectory and the true steady state. 

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long‐term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long‐term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems.